Facebook IPO – a high level view of Twitter leading up to their big day…

  1 m, 27 s

I analyzed 98,000 tweets, roughly the past 5 days worth of traffic for anything mentioning facebook and (ipo OR stock).

Overall, sentiment is roughly neutral, but with a fair amount of sentiment on either side.   This is actually a highly polarized topic – so, while the average is coming out neutral, there’s lots of chatter on both sides.

General motors is the #2 most often mentioned company (after Facebook, which should hopefully be obvious, but which I'm mentioning anyways) – because of their ad pullout.  There is no presence of any other social networking company.

The most positive concepts (themes) are around “ipo orders” and “crazy”.   The most negative themes are “massive valuation” and business model scrutiny”.   

Most of the conversation is focusing on how big the IPO is going to be, how much in demand it is, and the pricing.

The following are the predominant points both positive and negative that are being swirled around on Twitter:

Positive points:

  • Incredible oversubscription of IPO
  • Raising target price of IPO
  • Raising shares that will be sold in IPO
  • Most highly valued IPO
  • More valuable than Disney and McDonalds
  • Social ad business is taking off (they’re sponsored stories or posts from regular users that an advertiser pays to highlights) - doing way better than marketplace ads (the squares on the right hand side)

Negative points:

  • “Half of americans say Facebook is passing fad” - according to AP/CNBC poll
  • CNBC reporting that IPO may not be tomorrow
  • Why is it going to be valued at more than Ford + Boeing combined market cap?
  • Critics skeptical of changes to privacy policy ahead of IPO
  • GM pullout causing some turmoil, but Ford still steady
  • General annoyance about co-founder Saverin renouncing US citizenship
Make of it what you will - I was just curious.